Heat vs. Celtics odds, prediction: 2023 NBA Eastern Conference finals picks, Game 7 bets by proven model
SportsLine's model simulated Game 7 of the Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Eastern Conference finals series in the 2023 NBA playoffsThe Boston Celtics look to continue a stellar run of play in a fourth consecutive must-win game on Monday. Boston fell behind the Miami Heat by a 3-0 margin in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals, only to win three straight games to even the series. Game 7 is set for TD Garden in Boston, with the winner moving on to face the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 NBA Finals. The Heat list Gabe Vincent (ankle) as questionable for the matchup, with Malcolm Brogdon (forearm) listed as questionable for the Celtics.Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as a 7.5-point favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 203.5 in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds. Before making any Celtics vs. Heat picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -7.5
- Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 203.5 points
- Heat vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -305, Heat +240
- MIA: The Heat are 21-27-1 against the spread in road games
- BOS: The Celtics are 29-22 against the spread in home games
- Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Heat can coverMiami won't be fazed by the atmosphere at TD Garden in Boston. The Heat are 2-1 in the building during the series, scoring more than 1.18 points per possession in those three games. Miami has a stellar 33.6% offensive rebound rate in games played in Boston, and the Celtics are also just 5-5 at home during the postseason. In addition, Miami is well-coached by Erik Spoelstra, and there were positive signs in Game 6 despite the loss. The Heat committed only five turnovers in the game and were 14 of 30 from 3-point range. Miami struggled mightily inside the arc in a way that isn't indicative of talent deficiency, and the Heat are scoring more than 1.16 points per possession in the playoffs. The Heat are also winning the turnover battle in the series, and Miami has a 30.2% offensive rebound rate against Boston that allows Miami to win the overall possession battle. See which team to pick here.
Why the Celtics can coverJayson Tatum is the head of the snake for Boston, scoring at least 30 points in four of the six games in the series. Tatum had 31 points and 12 rebounds despite uncharacteristically poor 3-point shooting in Game 6, and he is averaging 10.5 rebounds per game in the playoffs. Tatum is the centerpiece of an offense that is scoring more than 1.17 points per possession in the postseason, including almost 1.21 points per possession in the last three games. Boston has the best true shooting percentage (59.9%) of any playoff team, and the Celtics also bring tremendous defensive characteristics to the table.
Boston is holding Miami to only 1.10 points per possession over the last three games, including 43.0% shooting from the field and only 20.0 assists allowed per game. The Celtics are also averaging 8.3 steals, 6.7 blocked shots, and 20.0 points off turnovers per game during the three-game winning streak, using havoc to boost overall efficiency. See which team to pick here.